It basically infuriates me when I hear the other talking heads talking about what stocks to buy during the exact moments that the index futures are making new multi-year lows. Why do people do this? Is it to try to make people feel better? To look smart? To feel smart? Just for TV because that is what the proverbial investors want to hear?

Bear markets mean lower lows and lower highs … and we are in a bear market until we get higher lows. and higher highs … which is decidedly NOT today.

At least Charles Payne on Fox Biz talked about SDS – one of the short ETF funds.

On one hand the world gives credence to “you can’t market time” (well what do they know) and on the other they all do the same thing us short-term, high frequency traders do which is go nuts over “missing out.” Yet missing out on the bottom is a great thing – regardless of your timeframe. The market has this funny tendency to trade at a price, reverse from it and then go back and take a look – kind of like a criminal goes back to the scene. Everyone gets a second chance to get in at a safer spot – after the market has shown its hand – and this is true in ANY timeframe.

But back to rocket surgery Mario and all of the other experts who want to tell people what to buy – this is a bear market. How can you sleep at night knowing that people will listen to you and buy what you say – maybe even today?

The vast majority of the investing world wants to feel as if we have seen the bottom. They never put their flashlights down looking for the glimmers of hope, or mustard seeds as Kudlow calls them, that the worst is behind us.

But why should it be?

Technically the market has to take out the last high which at a minimum is ES 942.75 and clearly on its last two tries it couldn’t get through the 875 area. As Boaz Weinstein who I wrote about last week was prone to say “this isn’t rocket surgery.” Bear markets are bear markets as long as you get lower highs… which is exactly what we have… the only question is WHEN not where will the next low be?

What is confidence?

Some of the definitions from dictionary.com say -1) full trust, 2) belief in the powers, 3) reliability of a person or thing (the market? your trading strategy?) 4) certitude.

But how is confidence experienced? I mean how do you know you have it or not? In other words, where in your psyche does confidence exist – or leave a vacuum? Is it in your brain or in your body?

You might not able to tell so ask yourself the following and listen to where the answer comes from -How much confidence is there in the new US administration? The credit markets? The equity indices? The Cleveland Browns?

Take the question a step further and ask what is the relationship between confidence and beliefs? How are they the same – or different? And again, ask yourself where you experience a belief – your brain or your body?

In truth the brain and body are of course an intricate machine and the parts can’t really be separated but at the same time, we do experience different psychological events in one or the other. For example, as I type these words, it is my brain that is choosing the order and the spelling but it is effected through my fingers. A third dimension of this is how much confidence do I have that I can or am making sense in my post about confidence. If I feel that it is jibberish, I will rewrite – if I feel it it is clear, I will keep going.

But where does that feeling – the one that either posts or erases – occur?

Because the existence of confidence is so critical to markets overall and to individual decision-making/performance in the markets, it is a useful exercise to examine the experience of confidence in order to be able to use it – or replenish it when it wanes.

We all know it is key to implementing a trading strategy and we all know that when a large segment of the investing population is lacking in it, we have a bear market or a trend-day down. Seen any of those lately?

So, how do you define confidence? Where do you experience it?