Weren’t we supposed to be down today?
This morning CNBC was calling for the markets to collapse. Even my highly esteemed hometown boy Dennis Gartman was a bit negative (understatement) in his overnight letter.
So how did we end up on the day? Could it be that the failout (just made that word up) of a bailout is considered a good thing by traders? Could it be that everyone kept getting short and there was no one left to sell and stops to be taken out? Could it be that in a market profile sense the lows were of “unfair value”?
My guess is YES.
Have you EVER seen such chop as we had in the last 90 minutes? I guess I have but right now, colored by the vol of the past months, I can’t remember when. That alone pre-stages some kind of bigger move coming down the tracks.
…and on the psych cap side. I am getting lots of questions about “why do I overtrade and give so much back?” I hear this even from traders who overall do quite well… they blame it on “human weakness” but ironically it is the conception of emotion as a weakness that causes the problem. See without emotion we can’t put our clothes on in the morning – little lone (as they say in the midwest) get a cup of coffee, read the paper or TRADE. Emotion is essential for all of life – for any decision. So… I don’t think you want to be without it.
Learning to know it, use it and profit from it… now that is what you can do with the time that you are NOT overtrading.
Tags: Dennis Gartman, emotion, psych cap
Price movement at the open can be a “surprise” depending on what happened at the close the day before. The e-mini Russell was gapping down nearly 15 pts at the open, and after a horriffic selloff the day before. Shorts from the day before have a huge incentive to cover at the open, especially when all markets were at/near some price support from earlier this month. As well bulls on the sidelines (the pros) now are even more motivated to get in. Novices are in total shock at the open so they just sell. Thus my guess this a.m was long.